Sunday, November 21, 2010

My 2010 Billboard Hot 100 Year-end Chart Predix

UPDATE (12/10/10) The Billboard 2010 Year-end Hot 100 Chart is already out, you can see the results here

With the release of the final chart eligible for Billboard 2010 Year-end chart I decided to make a prediction on what songs will likely make it to the Top 20 of the Year-end Hot 100 chart. Again the Billboard chart year is from December of the outgoing year to November of the incoming year (in this case December 2009-November 2010) the reason that Billboard does this is because it will give them enough time to produce the Billboard Year-end charts magazine to be released on the second week of December. The tabulation of the year-end chart will be based on the accumulated sales, audience impressions (airplay) and streaming points during the chart year. My prediction is just based basically on hunch taking into consideration the chart performance of each song. So without further adieu here's my prediction:

20. I Like It -Enrique Iglesias feat Pitbull
27 weeks, peak: 4

19. Not Afraid - Eminem
25 weeks, peak: 1 (1 week)

18. Cooler Than Me - Mike Posner
29 weeks, peak: 6

17. Dynamite - Taio Cruz
24 weeks, peak: 2

16. BedRock - Young Money feat Lloyd

25 weeks, peak: 2

15. I Gotta Feeling - Black Eyed Peas
33 weeks for chart year (56 weeks overall), peak for chart year: 9

14. Empire State of Mind - Jay Z feat Alicia Keys
21 weeks for chart year (30 weeks overall), peak: 1 (5 weeks)

13. Telephone - Lady GaGa feat Beyonce
33 weeks, peak: 3

12. In My Head - Jason DeRulo
34 weeks, peak: 5

11. Breakeven - The Script
43 weeks, peak: 12

10. Nothin' on You - B.o.B feat Bruno Mars
28 weeks, peak: 1 (2 weeks)
11 weeks in the Top 5
13 weeks in the Top 10

9. Love The Way You Lie - Eminem feat Rihanna

21 weeks, peak: 1 (7 weeks)
14 weeks in the Top 5
16 weeks in the Top 10

8. Break Your Heart - Taio Cruz feat Ludacris

29 weeks, peak: 1 (1 week)
11 weeks in the Top 5
16 weeks in the Top 10

7. Airplanes - B.o.B feat Hayley Williams

30 weeks, peak: 2
13 weeks in the Top 5
17 weeks in the Top 10

6. OMG - Usher feat will.i.am

30 weeks, peak: 1 (4 weeks)
12 weeks in the Top 5
17 weeks in the Top 10

5. California Gurls - Katy Perry feat Snoop Dog

27 weeks, peak: 1 (6 weeks)
14 weeks in the top 5
17 weeks in the top 10

4. Bad Romance - Lady GaGa

31 weeks for chart year (34 weeks overall), peak: 2
15 weeks in the top 5
16 weeks in the top 10

3. Hey, Soul Sister - Train

47 weeks for chart year (54 weeks overall), peak: 3
5 weeks in the Top 5
19 weeks in the Top 10

2. Need You Now - Lady Antebellum

46 weeks (60 weeks overall), peak: 2
11 weeks in the top 5
15 weeks in the top 10

1. Tik Tok - Ke$ha

32 weeks (38 weeks overall), peak: 1 (9 weeks)
15 weeks in the top 5
19 weeks in the top 10

5 comments:

Anonymous said...

There's some I agree with and some i don't.

Tik Tok is as good as a lock for #1 because of the 9 weeks at #1 and it had one of the longest times in the top 10.

NYN and HSS won't be #2/#3. They should be more around 6/7, they didn't reach #1.

The rest of the top 10 should be (in no particular order) Airplanes, Bad Romance, LTWYL, Cali Girls, OMG, Break Your Heart & Rude Boy (how you fail to mention a song with 5 weeks at #1 is beyond me).

The two in the bottom 10 I don't agree with are I Gotta Feeling and Breakeven. They had one week combined in the top 10. I think they will be top 30/40 but I don't think top 20. There are plenty of other songs that spent upwards of 20 weeks on the chart with a majority of them in the top 20. For example, Sexy Bitch, Replay & DJs Got Us Falling in Love Again.

I'd even think Just a Dream or Just the Way You Are have shots (especially JTWYA).

forg/jecoup said...

Thanks for commenting! Sexy Beast fell out of my radar actually and I agree it has a chance of breaking in the top 20 given its longevity. The longevity is also the reason why I predicted higher rankings for Hey, Soul Sister, Need You Now, I Gotta Feeling and Breakeven, I could be way wrong with those but I'm sticking this predictions :)

As for Rude Boy, even though it top the Hot 100 for 5 weeks it fell out the chart fast, it stayed 22 weeks only. It could make it to the top 20 but I highly doubt it land in the top 10 on the year-end chart.

Anyway, I'm really looking forward to see the year-end chart soon :)

Anonymous said...

1) Tik Tok – Ke$ha
2) California Gurls – Katy Perry feat. Snoop Dogg
3) Love the Way You Lie – Eminem feat. Rihanna
4) Bad Romance – Lady GaGa
5) Hey, Soul Sister - Train
6) Need You Now – Lady Antebellum
7) Airplanes – B.o.B feat. Hayley Williams
8) Break Your Heart – Taio Cruz feat. Ludacris
9) Dynamite – Taio Cruz
10) OMG – Usher feat. Will.I.Am
11) Nothin’ On You – B.o.B feat. Bruno Mars
12) Not Afraid - Eminem
13) Imma Be - The Black Eyed Peas
14) Rude Boy - Rihanna
15) Bedrock – Young Money feat. Lloyd
16) Teenage Dream – Katy Perry
17) DJ Got Us Fallin’ in Love – Usher feat. Pitbull
18) I Like It – Enrique Iglesias
19) Sexy Bitch – David Guetta feat. Akon
20) Billionaire – Travie McCoy feat. Bruno Mars
21) Cooler Than Me – Mike Posner
22) Empire State of Mind – Jay-Z feat. Alicia Keys
23) Breakeven – The Script
24) Your Love Is My Drug – Ke$ha
25) In My Head – Jason DeRulo
25) Telephone – Lady GaGa feat. Beyonce
-I have Telephone also as 25 because it is very possible that either In My Head or Telephone could be in the top 25.

Other possible songs in the 20-25 range or in the 26-30 range:
Baby – Justin Bieber feat. Ludacris
Just the Way You Are – Bruno Mars
Alejandro – Lady GaGa
Replay - Iyaz
How Low – Ludacris

Anonymous said...

1) Tik Tok - Ke$ha
2) California Gurls - Katy Perry featuring Snoop Dogg
3) Empire State Of Mind- Jay-Z featuring Alicia Keys
4) Love The Way You Lie - Eminem featuring Rihanna
5) Bad Romance - Lady GaGa

forg/jecoup said...

Thanks to all who shared their predictions!

The yearend Hot 100 is already out!
http://bit.ly/h0nWMG