Saturday, January 14, 2012

My 69th Golden Globe Awards Predictions [Part 1]

The 69th Golden Globe Awards will be handed out January 15 on NBC (and January 16, Philippine time and will be aired via Star World) and I'll share my predictions as always. First up, my predictions for the TV categories:

Best Drama Series

American Horror Story
Boardwalk Empire
Game of Thrones

Winner: American Horror Story
Close Second: Homeland
Wildcard: Game of Thrones

The Hollywood Foreign Press Association (HFPA) loves Ryan Murphy as his two shows Nip/Tuck and Glee raked in Golden Globe awards before so it's a safe bet they will show Murphy's new show with some love too especially that the show is a success as well. But if the HFPA want to earn some "cool" points they will award the best reviewed new show in the fall "Homeland" or the HBO's critically acclaimed adaptation of Game of Thrones.

Best Comedy Series

Modern Family
New Girl

Winner: New Girl
Close Second: Modern Family
Wildcard: Episodes

You would think that two-time Emmy winner Modern Family will easily win this but after being snubbed the last two years I don't think they're a slam dunk to win this year. While I seriously doubt the current champ Glee will win again, I think the HFPA will ignore Modern Family again and reward one of the hottest new sitcoms via New Girl. There's also a possibility they would threw some bone to Episodes, a show with a premises that's appealing to the HFPA

Best Miniseries or TV Movie

Cinema Verite
Downton Abbey
The Hour
Mildred Pierce
Too Big to Fail

Winner: Downton Abbey
Close Second: Mildred Pierce

I think it will be just be between these two and the HFPA will follow the Emmys and award Downton Abbey but never count out Mildren Pierce as it is from HBO and stars a multiple Golden Globe winner.

Best Actor (Drama)

Steve Buscemi (Boardwalk Empire)
Bryan Cranston (Breaking Bad)
Kelsey Grammer (Boss)
Jeremy Irons (The Borgias)
Damian Lewis (Homeland)

Winner: Damian Lewis (Homeland)
Close Second: Kelsey Grammer (Boss)
Wildcard: Bryan Cranston (Breaking Bad)

The HFPA would love to be the first one to award acclaimed performances from the critically acclaimed new shows but I think Lewis has the edge here since his show is from a channel with wider reach than Grammer's show but I think any of the two could win. But never count on three-time Emmy champ Cranston because this might finally be the year HFPA honors his fantastic turn in Breaking Bad. The only reason I'm not predicting him to win is because of the lack of love in general by the HFPA to the show

Best Actress (Drama)

Claire Danes (Homeland)
Mireille Enos (The Killing)
Julianna Margulies (The Good Wife)
Madeleine Stowe (Revenge)
Callie Thorne (Necessary Roughness)

Winner: Claire Danes (Homeland)
Close Second: Madeleine Stowe (Revenge)

I think Claire Danes will easily win this one but Stowe's performance in Revenge has gain a lot of buzz and a win for Stowe would generate a lot of buzz and chatter and if anything HFPA loves to have those kind of wins so she's a potent threat to Danes.

Best Actor (Comedy)

Alec Baldwin (30 Rock)
David Duchovny –(Californication)
Johnny Galecki –(The Big Bang Theory)
Thomas Jane (Hung)
Matt LeBlanc (Episodes)

Winner: Matt LeBlanc (Episodes)
Wildcard: the rest

Weirdest category this year, I think LeBlanc should easily win this as I don't see the HFPA rewarding former winners (Baldwin, Duchovny) or performances with low to no buzz at all (Galecki, Jane).

Best Actress (Comedy)

Laura Dern (Enlightened)
Zooey Deschanel (New Girl)
Tina Fey (30 Rock)
Laura Linney (The Big C)
Amy Poehler (Parks and Recreation)

Winner: Zooey Deschanel (New Girl)
Close Second: Laura Dern (Enlightened)
Wildcard: Amy Poehler (Parks and Recreation)

Deschanel should easily win this as well, she's a young, lovely and well-loved actress headlining one of the freshman hits this season. If anyone could beat it would probably be Dern as she is a former movie star. But then again sometimes the HFPA would award critically acclaimed performances that the Emmys miss (like Katey Segal last year) so Amy Poehler is a darkhorse.

Best Actor (TV Movie/Mini Series)

Hugh Bonneville (Downton Abbey)
Idris Elba (Luther )
William Hurt (Too Big to Fail)
Bill Nighy (Page Eight)
Dominic West – The Hour

Winner: Idris Elba (Luther )
Wildcard: the rest

Elba is ahead in terms of acclaim and buzz so he should easily win this but the HFPA could threw in a shocker and award someone else.

Best Actress (TV Movie/Mini Series)

Romola Garai (The Hour)
Diane Lane (Cinema Verite)
Elizabeth McGovern (Downton Abbey)
Emily Watson (Appropriate Adult)
Kate Winslet (Mildred Pierce)

Winner: Kate Winslet (Mildred Pierce)
Wildcard: the rest

Like Elba, this win should be a walk in the park for Winslet. The HFPA loves Winslet that they even nominated her performance in the movie Carnage so anyone but her winning this one would be the biggest shocker of the night.

Best Supporting Actor for Everything TVSeries, Miniseries, or TV Movie

Peter Dinklage (Game of Thrones)
Paul Giamatti (Too Big to Fail)
Guy Pearce (Mildred Pierce)
Tim Robbins (Cinema Verite)
Eric Stonestreet (Modern Family)

Winner: Guy Pearce (Mildred Pierce)
Close Second: Peter Dinklage (Game of Thrones)
Wildcard: Paul Giamatti (Too Big to Fail)

Again the craziest category and the toughest to predict, there are two current Emmy winners here Dinklage (for Drama series) and Pearce (TV Movie/mini series) so the winner could be from one of them, I think they'll pick Pierce since it's the type of role suited to HFPA's taste but then again if they want to be "cool" they will give this to Dinklage. Giamatti is my wildcard pick because he seems like a HFPA favorite.

Best Supporting Actress for Everything TVSeries, Miniseries, or TV Movie

Jessica Lange (American Horror Story)
Kelly Macdonald (Boardwalk Empire)
Maggie Smith (Downton Abbey)
Sofía Vergara (Modern Family)
Evan Rachel Wood (Mildred Pierce)

Winner: Jessica Lange (American Horror Story)
Close Second: Maggie Smith (Downton Abbey)
Wildcard: Sofía Vergara (Modern Family)

Lange should have no problem winning this one as she has it: a respected actress in one of the most buzzed shows of the season. We can also say the same thing to Smith that's why she's in the best position to pull an upset but I think Lange has an edge because her role is flashier. Vergara's Hollywood profile is rising (just check out the number of movies she has been/will be part of since she broke out in Modern Family) but so far she has not received any major award yet so HFPA might want to be the first to recognize her.

Up next: My predictions for the Movies category

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