Thursday, November 19, 2009

Prediction: Billboard Yearend Chart 2009

Billboard's chart year ends on this week's chart (with issue date of 11.28.09) and with that, I'll share my prediction on what songs would likely make the top 10 of 2009. For those who don't know, Billboard's chart starts with December of the outgoing year until November of the incoming year. Why? It's more of a publication issue since Billboard needs to release the year-end edition of the magazine on December so that's why they need the extra time to produce therefore the early cutoff. Anyway, here goes my prediction:

Wildcards to make it to the top 10: Taylor's You Belong With Me, All American Reject
's Gives You Hell and Kings of Leon's Use Somebody

10. I'm Yours - Jason Mraz



I know this song was so 2008 but this year it made a record breaking 79 weeks on the chart and it was present 90% of the chart year and despite not even reaching the top 5, I'm sure this song will land in the year-end top 10. I may be underestimating this song in my prediction and it could even chart higher in the year-end chart.

9. Heartless - Kanye West


This song debuted at #4 and peaked at #2, it stayed on the Hot 100 for 30 weeks and also spawned several covers for this song.

8. Live Your Life - T.I feat Rihanna



This is another 2008 hit but given the chart year, the song performed well on the start of the chart year and with download sales of 3 million plus and heavy airplay, I will be not surprised if this song would appear on the top 10

7. Love Story - Taylor Swift


This pop crossover breakout single from Taylor Swift became the best selling country song in the digital era and also received heavy airplay. It stayed on the charts for 49 weeks and peaked at #4

6. Right Round - Flo Rida



Last year Flo Rida topped the 2008 year-end chart with Low and this year he will make another appearance on the year-end although not as successful as Low but still a big hit. This song set the record for the highest first week digital sales with 600+ thousand and topped the Hot 100 for 6 weeks

5. Single Ladies (Put a Ring On It) - Beyonce


This iconic song from Beyonce also started its chart life on the tail end of 2008 but reached #1 at the start of chart year. It spent 27 weeks on the chart, 4 weeks at #1 and with digital sales of about 3 million

4. I Gotta Feeling - Black Eyed Peas



Black Eyed Peas dominated the Hot 100 this year as it ruled for 26 consecutive weeks at #1 and 14 weeks of which was for this song. It debuted at #2 and spent 22 weeks on the chart to date. Given the amazing performance of this song, I could have rank this song higher but the next three songs debuted earlier and had massive sales and airplay plus longevity.

Looking at the statistics for Top 3 songs we could tell that any of the three songs could top the year-end chart. My basis of ranking the three songs is base purely on gut feeling because it is really anybody's game which makes the chart exciting.

3. Poker Face - Lady GaGa



Chart Run:
92 81 83 72 48 32 23 12 10 6 3 3 3 2 1 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 2 2 5 7 12 15 15 18 19 23 27 31 39 35 41 49 49 43

Weeks in:
#1: 1
Top 2: 10
Top 5: 15
Top 10: 18
Top 40: 31
Top 100: 40

Sales:
4,074,049

2. Boom Boom Pow - Black Eyed Peas



Chart Run:
71 54 39 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 6 7 8 10 15 13 17 19 15 26 30 38 45 46 45

Weeks in:
#1: 12
Top 2: 14
Top 5: 15
Top 10: 19
Top 40: 28
Top 100: 33

Sales:
4,194,092

1. Just Dance - Lady GaGa feat Colby O'Donis



Chart Run:
[2008: 76 87 74 79 80 75 73 67 66 60 59 49 27 21 16] 7 5 4 3 3 2 1 1 1 2 4 3 5 7 7 7 10 10 9 11 12 14 14 17 19 21 26 22 29 29 36 42 42 48

Weeks in:
#1: 3
Top 2: 5
Top 5: 12
Top 10: 19
Top 40: 28 (25 in 2009)
Top 100: 49 (34 in 2009)

Sales:
4,603,506

6 comments:

Anonymous said...

10. Second Chance by Shinedown
9. Use Somebody by Kings of Leon
8. I Know You Want Me (Calle Ocho) by Pitbull
7. Gives You Hell by The All-American Rejects
6. Boom Boom Pow by The Black Eyed Peas
5. Just Dance by Lady Gaga
4. You Found Me by The Fray
3. Poker Face by Lady Gaga
2. Love Story by Taylor Swift
1. I'm Yours by Jason Mraz

*Wildcard* Knock You Down by Keri Hilson

forg/jecoup said...

Thanks for sharing your prediction!

Anonymous said...

10.Gives You Hell
9.You Belong With Me
8.Halo
7.Right Round
6.Love Story
5.Single Ladies
4.Just Dance
3.I Gotta Feeling
2.Poker Face
1.Boom Boom Pow

Anonymous said...

I def agree with your top 4 - just not sure of the order. The only problem with "Just Dance" being #1 is that it spend some of its chartlife on the 2008 chart. "I Gotta Feeling" hasn't finished it's run yet. So my thinking is the #1 and #2 slots could go to "Pokerface" and "Boom Boom Pow" - but, again, not sure which order.
And to the person who posted their prediction of "I'm Yours" being #1 - sorry, never gonna happen. Yes, it would probably make the top 10 because of its astounding chart life, but #1??? Not in a million years - especially with the songs from BEP and Lady Gaga.
So, just for fun, here are my predictions:
10. I'm Yours
9. Single Ladies (Put A Ring On It)
8. Right Round
7. Heartless
6. You Belong With Me
5. Love Story
4. I Gotta Feeling
3. Just Dance
2. Boom Boom Pow
1. Pokerface

forg/jecoup said...

Thanks for sharing your predictions

chanpara said...

10. You Belong With Me
9. Single Ladies
8. I'm Yours
7. Knock You Down
6. Love Story
5. Right Round
4. Just Dance
3. Porker Face
2. I Gotta Feeling
1. Boom Boom Pow